In the upcoming week, we will be spending a significant amount of time with Andrew Hunt, an independent economist from Hunt Economics who will be visiting Australia. Our discussions will focus on the key factors that will shape the global economy and markets in the coming months, particularly in the lead-up to the U.S. election.

One of the main topics we will explore is the consensus assumptions currently priced into the markets. These include the expectation of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. election cycle and other jurisdictions, as well as the belief that central bank liquidity will be there to provide support. While Andrew is not necessarily arguing against these assumptions, he has identified six key areas to watch that might indicate that we are heading onto a different trajectory.‍

First, we will discuss currency market volatility, which could serve as a canary in the coal mine for broader economic and market changes. We will discuss how to interpret these signals and what they might mean for the Fed's actions.‍

Secondly, we will examine the potential for fiscal policy debates to emerge, particularly if the population becomes more sceptical of the main candidates in the U.S. election. This could lead to a resurgence of fiscal hawkishness, with populism taking on a new meaning focused on responsible financial management.‍

Thirdly, we will delve into the inflation vs. deflation dynamics, as the global economy appears to be on a knife-edge. While the population is highly attuned to inflation, Asia, and particularly China, continues to export disinflation or even deflation. We will discuss how this could provide the Fed with some room to manoeuvre and how better-than-expected news from China could provide a lift to the region.‍

Fourth, we will explore the inflationary pressures arising from geopolitical tensions, onshoring trends, and the green revolution. As we begin to understand the potential trade-offs involved in these trends, we may need to shift our focus towards the "school of hard choices.‍

Fifth, we will discuss the role of fiscal support and deficit monetisation in the current economic environment. As the election approaches, we will monitor whether these issues enter the popular conversation and how they might impact market sentiment.‍

Finally, we will examine the bond and currency markets for signs of shifting expectations and the potential impact of populist sentiment on these markets.

Through our discussions with Andrew, we will be looking put our long-term capital market assumptions in the context of near term market events and aligning them with portfolio strategies. There its also the distinct possibility that we look back own this period when the dust is settling post-COVID as a turning point and the start of a new economic, market and investing regime. That implies feedback and input into some of those long-term capital market assumptions.

So, stay tuned for more updates in teh coming weeks following our discussions withHunt economics, as we work to provide a comprehensive analysis of the key drivers and potential outcomes for the global economy and markets in the lead-up to the U.S. election and well beyond.