Weekly Market Update

Australian Earnings Season Delivers Outsized Market Reactions

February 23, 2026

Australian equities extended their reporting season rally as the trend of outsized reactions to company results gathered pace. Misses are being punished heavily while even modest earnings beats can drive big jumps in market cap. Technology and AI-exposed companies remained volatile but posted a fierce mid-week rally that mirrored offshore moves in the US. While headline Australian indices have advanced, market leadership remains narrow, with strength in big banks and miners driving an outsized contribution to performance.

Company News

• Haulage group Aurizon rallied on a strong result that beat market expectations, with better earnings in coal and bulk freight. Lower capital expenditure, an increased dividend, and a fresh $100m share buyback topped off a good set of numbers.

• Penfolds brand owner Treasury Wine Estates reported a mixed result, meeting downgraded earnings expectations but flagging ongoing headwinds and uncertainty. A discounted valuation and strong recent trading for the key Penfolds brand in China are bright spots after a tough 12 months for the company, especially in the US.

• Glove-maker Ansell beat market earnings forecasts despite softer revenue as price increases supported margins. The company has navigated tariff risks well and is effectively managing volume pressures in some categories.

• Developer Stockland reported a sharp uptick in residential settlements that was geographically broad-based and reaffirmed robust full-year guidance.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank delivered solid first half earnings but is struggling to grow its lending book without sacrificing margins. Cost-growth remains an issue and remediating its anti-money laundering process will require a costly multi-year program.

• Mining giant BHP beat consensus earnings expectations and delivered an upgrade to the outlook at key copper asset Escondida. Copper now makes up more than half the group’s earnings. A stronger dividend, better free cash flow, and a multi-billion dollar streaming deal for silver production at the Antamina mine topped off a strong result for the big Australian.

Seek failed to shake off market fears about the future of marketplaces in an AI-world. Solid earnings, margins, and placement share initially saw the shares spike but then retrace. Seek emphasized its unique data sets and role matching hirers with candidates. Yield growth (pricing power) was a key highlight against weaker volumes. ANZ yield was up 17% in the half.

• SME lender Judo Bank reported earnings ahead of expectations despite a modest deterioration in asset quality. Improving net interest margins and a strong medium-term outlook were key positives.

• Property giant Goodman Group reaffirmed full-year earnings guidance as its work-book is increasingly dominated by data centres. More than 70% of Goodman’s work-in-progress now comes from data centres at attractive yields.

• Diversified developer Mirvac reported a strong result with an improving outlook for residential settlements and expanding gross margins. Earnings quality and visibility is improving and new projects are backfilling the longer-term growth profile.

• Pathology giant Sonic Healthcare bounced after announcing a review of its US business to improve operational performance. Sales held up in a difficult environment and the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

• Global supply chain group Brambles reported solid earnings growth despite a slow volume environment that crimped sales growth. New business wins, operational efficiencies, and strong cashflows were key highlights.

• Telco heavyweight Telstra firmed after demonstrating strong cost control, growing earnings despite modest top line growth.

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