Weekly Market Update

Tech Gains and Conflicting Economic Signals Drive a Mixed Market

June 12, 2024

Recent market trends have underscored a robust performance in the technology sector, notably driven by giants like Nvidia and Apple. These advances come against a backdrop of fluctuating economic data and central bank activities that are shaping mixed market conditions. 

The U.S. markets experienced a positive week, with the S&P 500 rising by about 2%, largely driven by the technology sector. Despite strong employment growth suggesting a robust economy with 272,000 new jobs added last month, mixed signals such as a sharply contracting manufacturing index (falling to 47.2 from 49.5) and reduced job openings, which dropped to a three-year low of 8.1 million, indicate a complex economic environment. These contrasting data points create a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.

With inflation still high, central banks around the world, including the ECB and the Federal Reserve, face challenges in balancing economic growth with inflation control. The anticipation around the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, especially coinciding with the key inflation CPI report which is expected to show a 0.25% increase. While the Fed is anticipated to hold interest rates steady, the CPI data will be closely scrutinised for signs of persistent inflation. Any deviation from expected inflation figures could influence market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing a challenging environment. Inflation remains high, and the RBA is expected to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period compared to other advanced economies. This is partly due to the RBA's cautious approach to rate hikes in the past, which now necessitates a prolonged period of higher rates to manage inflation. The Australian economy is particularly sensitive to short-term interest rates due to the prevalence of variable mortgage rates, making the RBA's decisions critically impactful on the domestic economy .

The technology sector continues to outperform, with Nvidia recently pushing its market value above $3 trillion following strong quarterly earnings. This sector's success is providing a counterbalance to some of the negative economic indicators, influencing overall market confidence and investor strategies. The Nasdaq composite, heavily influenced by tech stocks, hit a new record high, further underscoring the sector’s impact.

Meme stocks made a notable comeback, with GameStop surging 21% after a Reddit account linked to meme-stock icon Keith Gill posted a screenshot showing a $116 million position in the stock . AMC Entertainment also closed 11% higher .However, by the end of the week, GameStop shares had slid 39% following a volatile trading session .

In summary, the past week's market movements were influenced by strong performances in the tech sector and mixed economic signals. The upcoming weeks will be pivotal as key inflation and economic data are released, providing critical insights into the future direction of monetary policies in the U.S. and Australia. Investors and policymakers alike will be closely monitoring these developments to gauge the health of the global economy and the effectiveness of measures to control inflation.

Markets Shrug Off Surprise Upside in US Inflation

January 30, 2025
Despite a higher-than-expected rise in US CPI for December 2022, markets remained relatively sanguine over the implications for growth and monetary policy.
Read More

Rocking the Boat - Equities Stumble After Big Tech Selloff

January 30, 2025
After outsized gains in big tech stocks last year, global equities have stumbled over the past week amidst a tech selloff, challenging the notion of their invulnerability and potentially signaling a shift in market optimism tied to recent liquidity trends.
Read More

Recap of 2023: Two Stories With The Same Ending

January 30, 2025
This week started with more optimism about the US economy and further stock market gains until a sharp pullback on Wednesday snapped the US market’s nine-session winning streak. Thursday then saw a recovery, putting the S&P 500 back on track for an eighth week of gains, after US inflation data showed a gradual economic cooling in line with Fed hopes.
Read More

Santa (Powell) Has Come Early For Markets

January 30, 2025
The last week in markets, as is often the case, was totally dominated by the US economy and monetary policy. In this case it was an encouraging inflation print on Wednesday, followed by the US Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold the next day.
Read More

Big Tech Flexes Its Muscles With Late Week Surge

January 30, 2025
It was a mixed week in global financial markets as the market continued to assess the likelihood of a hard or soft landing next year and the implication for inflation and interest
Read More

Booming Small Caps to Bond Spreads Tightening

January 30, 2025
It was a mildly positive week for global markets, with the S&P/ASX 300 gaining 0.7%. International developed markets were down 0.4% in AUD terms as measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia index.
Read More

Balancing Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches for Concentrated Risk Exposures

May 19, 2025
Read More

Trade Truce Lifts Markets But Long-Term Clarity Still Lacking

May 19, 2025
Read More

Fundamentals vs. Flows in Australian Equities with Tim Binsted

May 9, 2025
Read More

Markets Balance Positive Signals Against Persistent Risks

May 9, 2025
Read More

Staying Focused on Long-Term Strategic Investing Amidst Tariff Uncertainty

May 5, 2025
Read More

Amid Lingering Uncertainty, Markets Rise in Relief Ahead of Important Data

May 5, 2025
Read More
No items found.
No items found.
No items found.
Icon of a letter

InvestSense insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news