Central Banks Diverge as Australia Charts Its Own Course
Global markets navigated a complex week as central bank policy paths continued to diverge sharply across regions.
In Australia, the economic narrative shifted decisively. Hot inflation data—with the monthly CPI print coming in at 3.8% year-on-year—combined with blockbuster private capital expenditure figures have effectively closed the door on RBA rate cuts. Private capex surged 6.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven largely by data centre investment as the AI boom reaches Australian shores. Australian 10-year yields pushed above 4.6%, now commanding a 50+ basis point premium over US Treasuries—the highest spread since mid-2022.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered what appears to be its final rate cut of the cycle, with Governor Hawkesby signaing a high hurdle for further easing. New Zealand's economy showed resilience with retail sales jumping 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and business confidence hitting an 11-year high.
The UK budget dominated European headlines, though a premature leak of OBR forecasts overshadowed Chancellor Reeves' fiscal package. Markets initially welcomed the larger fiscal headroom, pushing gilt yields lower, though questions remain about backloaded tax increases and their political viability.
In Japan, Governor Ueda's comments heightened expectations for a December rate hike, pushing two-year JGB yields to their highest since the Global Financial Crisis. Market pricing now reflects an 85% probability of near-term tightening.
Meanwhile, US markets await the Fed's December decision with around 83% probability of a cut, though weak ISM manufacturing data (48.2 versus 49 expected) added caution. Bitcoin swung wildly, touching $85,000 before rebounding, while silver hit record highs above $57 per ounce.
China's PMI data disappointed again, with manufacturing and services both contracting, raising questions about Q4 momentum and potential stimulus heading into 2026.
That left markets only just short of where they started November after a round trip with the Nasdaq briefly falling around 8% amid renewed AI bubble concerns.
