Are we at a crossroads for markets, economies and even societies? There are mounting  reasons to suggest that this may be the case  (don’t read The Fourth Turning if you are happy keeping your head in the sand about the prospects of an imminent, once in 80 year cataclysm!) On the other hand, we have all been posing this question since around COVID but the can keeps getting kicked. The upcoming Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Summit is set to tackle these issues in a world where traditional policy backstops are weakening and disruptive forces loom large. Central to the discussions will be the concepts of regime change and sequencing risk, and how they intersect with the summit's provocative theme: "Time to make a move".

Regime change, in this context, refers to a fundamental shift in the economic and market environment, often driven by major policy pivots, geopolitical realignments, or technological disruptions. The comfort zone of "stay long and get longer", underpinned by decades of policy rescue and economic expansion, is giving way to a more uncertain landscape marked by persistent inflation, higher-for-longer rates, and the potential decline of U.S. exceptionalism.

Intimately linked to this is the concept of sequencing risk - the danger that the order and timing of market shocks can have a disproportionate, lasting impact on portfolio outcomes, especially for those in or approaching retirement. As the summit's scenario analysis underscores, a negative market event in the early years of retirement can significantly erode capital, underlining the urgency of defensive reallocations.

These twin challenges take on particular significance in the Australian context, where the world's fourth largest pension pool is heavily concentrated in equities and domestic assets. With over$4 trillion in superannuation assets , and a unique system that emphasises private pension provision, the resilience and adaptability of retirement portfolios in the face of regime change will be a central focus. After a 25 year cyclical boom for the local economy it's worth asking what regime change could mean for Australians.

In this week’s What We Are Working On video, Jonathan Tolub and Jonathan Ramsay preview the summit's agenda which has been carefully curated to bridge the gap between these macro shifts and the practical portfolio decisions facing delegates. An opening macro panel featuring diverse perspectives on U.S. markets, interest rates, housing affordability and social unrest will set the scene, followed by the inaugural Da Vinci Lecture connecting the dots between investment challenges and broader civilisational stewardship.

Concurrent sessions will then dive into both contemporary asset class opportunities, from private credit to listed infrastructure, and cutting-edge techniques in portfolio construction, including multi-asset and multi-manager approaches. Delegates will also have the chance to rotate through a series of elective Strategy Implementation Forums (SIFs) covering topics like systematic investing, global REITs, and lifecycle products.

On day two, the pieces will come together in a focused exploration of economic scenarios and their asset allocation implications. Delegates will vote on four distinct scenarios, each championed by a relevant expert, and then trace the implications for portfolio positioning, from opportunistic re-risking to defensive relocations.

By surfacing these issues in a holistic, action-oriented way, the summit aims to equip investors with the frameworks and strategies needed to navigate the challenges ahead. Because in a world where regime change is a when, not an if, and sequencing risk is an ever-present danger, the time to make a move well, finally, may be now.

If you would like to attend virtually, join us here: https://services.brillient.com.au/register/portfolio-construction-forum-strategies-summit-2025/investsense-live-stream