The 2024 conference season has started in earnest! In the first of two videos this week, we review the H&B Wealth Symposium that we recently attended with some of the attendees. There was a consensus among speakers that economic predictions are difficult and that while most thought inflation and rates were still falling and long term risk return outcomes were supportive of most asset markets they were mostly uncertain of the path to get there. Geopolitical uncertainty and the US election further complicated the outlook for 2024 and was a reason to tread carefully. The seasoned diplomat and politician Arthur Sinidinos spoke at the conference and highlighted why the policy support and megatrends underpinning markets in recent years could reverse.

Perhaps after spectacularly errant projections from economic forecasters over the last 2 years or so speakers and attendees seemed particularly open to hearing different perspectives Opportunities highlighted include emerging markets, small caps, fixed income for portfolio resilience. The active vs passive debate came to the fore and bending passive and active strategies was widely seen as optimal for portfolio construction, with passive recommended for core exposures and active for less efficient areas. 

Watch the conference wrap up below:

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In this week’s second video JR and JT preview the upcoming Portfolio Construction Forum Market Summit.  In a very similar vein this conference also has a general tone of humility regarding market forecasts for the same reasons.  We think this is a healthy way to be thinking about markets now and that we are shaped by helping advisers absorb information and start to identify underlying issues that could develop over longer time frames rather than making bold predictions about what might happen in 2024.

JT highlights geopolitics and the US election as likely being a major theme. There is significant client interest in assessing the election outcomes and market impacts. Beyond just risks, there is some curiosity around potential opportunities that political shifts may create. Speakers like PIMCO's Libby Cantrill, a Washington insider, will address the election specifically. Markets will likely react ahead of actual policy changes so maybe we don’t really have until November to think about this. 

The two discuss how private market investing has become a much more prominent conference topic compared to several years ago. The hope is speakers can provide genuine insights into how private market strategies may fit within portfolios going forward based on underlying conditions, not just hype and we are hoping that we can get a better appreciation about where the potential fault lines could be, as well as a focus on headline yields.

Overall, there are a few bold thinkers in the line-up which we think will provide good ‘grist for the mill’ while the actionable investment ideas may well be quite idiosyncratic. We think this will be a good forum to help work out what the important questions are, even if some of the answers may remain elusive. We look forward to bringing you the highlights next week.

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